Franchise-tag window opening makes one-year guaranteed deals likely for breakout talents; bettors should be cautious on free-agent futures and early-season player props. If teams tag top running backs or breakout receivers, expect limited movement and reduced value in longshot landing-spot bets — favor markets tied to players staying put and delay big wagers until contracts are finalized.
Franchise-Tag Window Opens: What That Means for Teams and Bettors
The two-week franchise-tag window is now open, allowing teams to retain unrestricted free agents with a one-year guaranteed contract. Only players scheduled to become unrestricted free agents are eligible. Each NFL club may use one tag per offseason, and tags have been used sparingly in recent seasons.
How the Franchise Tag Works
Two tag types exist: the exclusive tag blocks the player from negotiating with other clubs; the non-exclusive tag permits negotiations, but if the player signs elsewhere the original team can either match the offer or accept two first-round picks as compensation. Salary for a non-exclusive tag is set by a formula tied to top salaries at the position or 120% of the player’s prior salary, whichever is higher.
Key dates to watch
The franchise-tag window closes on March 3. Free agency opens on March 11. These deadlines concentrate negotiation activity and can create short-term volatility in betting markets and fantasy valuations.
Top Candidates to Be Tagged
George Pickens — WR, Dallas Cowboys
Pickens flourished after a midseason trade, posting career highs in receptions, yards and touchdowns while stepping up during teammate injuries. Cowboys leadership has signaled a desire to keep him; a tag would lock him in for one year and reduce uncertainty over his landing spot.
Kenneth Walker III — RB, Seattle Seahawks
Coming off a strong postseason and a productive regular season while splitting snaps, Walker’s market value is high. A full franchise tag could be expensive for teams; a transition tag is a lower-cost alternative that would still limit his free-agency movement and affect betting lines tied to where he might sign.
Daniel Jones — QB, Indianapolis Colts
The Colts traded significant draft capital for a defensive cornerstone last season, indicating confidence in Jones as the long-term quarterback. His season ended with a torn Achilles, and while the team appears inclined to keep him, injury status will influence contract structure and early-season betting markets tied to QB performance.
Alec Pierce — WR, Indianapolis Colts
Pierce broke out with over 1,000 receiving yards and elite yards-per-catch figures, making him among the Colts’ most valuable pending free agents. A tag would secure his services while the team evaluates a longer-term commitment.
Breece Hall — RB, New York Jets
After a career-best season, Hall could test free agency but also fits the profile of a player a team might tag to retain premier rushers. A tag here would limit his market and influence odds on rushing leaderboards and team rushing props.
Kyle Pitts — TE, Atlanta Falcons
Pitts produced a career-best catch total and regained early-career form this past season. Inconsistent seasons outside those highs make him a candidate for a tag while the Falcons weigh a long-term investment.
Devin Lloyd — LB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Lloyd posted career-best production and made several game-changing plays this season. Linebacker tag values are steep, so the Jaguars must balance performance gains against tag cost when deciding whether to retain him for another year.
Travis Etienne — RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Etienne remains an efficient dual-threat back with high touchdown totals. The Jaguars have roster flexibility and may evaluate whether to lock him down or let him test the market, a decision with clear implications for fantasy and props markets.
Odafe Oweh — DE, Los Angeles Chargers
Acquired midseason, Oweh emerged as a core part of a potent pass rush. His trajectory suggests the Chargers could use the tag to keep an ascending edge rusher, affecting early-season defensive lines and sack props.
Betting and Fantasy Implications
Tags reduce player mobility, which can suppress landing-spot volatility and delay free-agent-driven odds shifts. Bettors should monitor tag decisions before making futures or player-specific wagers.
Markets tied to team-based outcomes, rushing/receiving leaderboards, and fantasy drafts can move significantly once tags are announced, so consider waiting for contract resolutions or adjusting stakes to reflect tag risk.
Seattle Seahawks won't franchise tag Kenneth Walker III after Super Bowl MVP performance
The two-week window to use the franchise tag on players is open. We look at nine top candidates who could be tagged by March 3.
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