Josh Allen the NFL's most betrayed QB? Not exactly what Sean McDermott had in mind

Josh Allen leads all QBs in EPA per start, yet Buffalo’s defense and special teams rank poorly, making wins less certain. Betting angle: favor Allen passing props or player-focused markets while avoiding Bills moneyline; consider taking the under on Buffalo’s team total or backing opponents against the spread.

Josh Allen Tops Betrayal Index as Bills’ Defense Slips

Josh Allen has climbed to the top of the league in EPA per start (9.4), carrying Buffalo to eye-catching offensive performances. Despite his production, the Bills are being hamstrung by weak complementary units: combined defensive and special teams support sits at -2.9 EPA per start, 25th among 30 qualifying quarterbacks. That contrast leaves Allen among the most “betrayed” quarterbacks in the NFL, tied with Dak Prescott.

Allen’s Efficiency and League Context

Allen’s EPA per start is the highest in the sample of 30 qualifying QBs, underscoring elite play at the position. Yet when team support is factored in, Buffalo’s uneven defense and special teams push the team’s net game outcomes far below what Allen’s individual metrics suggest. The gap between individual offensive output and team support helps explain close losses and inconsistent results.

Defense and Special Teams: A Steep Decline

Buffalo’s defense has regressed sharply. Two seasons ago the unit ranked seventh in EPA per play, slipped to 14th last season and sits 22nd through Week 11 this year. Special teams woes have compounded the problem. The defensive slide, in particular, increases variance in late-game situations and makes a deep playoff run more difficult unless that unit rebounds quickly.

Coaching, Play-Calling and Turnover Trends

Under head coach Sean McDermott and offensive coordinator Joe Brady, Buffalo has shifted its offensive profile. The team’s pass rate has decreased from roughly 59% under the previous coordinator to about 51% under Brady, and turnover rate has dropped from about 16% of drives to 7.9%. Those changes reduce risky plays and protect Allen, but they cannot fully compensate for defensive deficiencies.

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Playoff Outlook and Betting Implications

The defensive slide raises questions about Buffalo’s ability to convert Allen’s elite play into postseason wins. On the bright side, key AFC rivals Kansas City and Baltimore sit at 5-5, leaving room in the standings. For bettors, the split between Allen’s efficiency and team support suggests value in player props (passing yards, touchdown props) and caution on team-based markets. Consider fading Buffalo moneylines in tight matchups, looking at under on team totals when the defense is expected to struggle, and using spreads that account for the defense’s inconsistency.

The defense that once supported Allen through his growing pains has become a heavy burden for him to carry.

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