Week 4 NFL Power Rankings: 49ers, Bears rise as injuries take their toll on QBs

Eagles’ dominant start and Hurts’ unbeaten streak suggest backing Philadelphia in Week 4 spreads; Josh Allen’s MVP form favors Bills moneyline/futures, while QB injuries (49ers) and shaky QBs (Dolphins, Texans) make those lines riskier—monitor 49ers' QB health before betting their totals or spreads.

NFL QB Confidence Rankings — Week 3 Recap

Top 1–10: Elite Performers and Rising Stars

1. Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) — Cold-blooded confidence Jalen Hurts remains ultra-reliable, riding a 17-0 streak in his last starts. The Eagles’ balanced attack and late-game toughness make them a betting favorite for short spreads.

2. Buffalo Bills (3-0) — MVP-level momentum
   Josh Allen is calling the shots with a dominant start (seven TDs, 869 total yards). Bills futures and game-day moneylines look strong while Allen’s hot streak continues.

3. Los Angeles Chargers (3-0) — Skyrocketing QB play
   Justin Herbert leads the league in passing yards; his form boosts the Chargers in both spread and player-prop markets, including MVP futures.

4. San Francisco 49ers (3-0) — Solid, but injury caveats
   Wins persist despite QB shuffling and injuries. Punters should treat 49ers lines as volatile until Brock Purdy and Mac Jones’ health is clear.

5. Detroit Lions (2-1) — Efficient and confident
   Jared Goff’s play and a stout running game have Detroit trending upward; good matchups could favor backing the Lions in home spreads.

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-0) — Swagger with questions
   Baker Mayfield’s poise masks a thin point differential. Underdogs against weaker opponents may still be value, but avoid large futures assumptions.

7. Green Bay Packers (2-1) — Promising despite hiccups
   Jordan Love’s efficiency suggests steadiness; good option in prop markets if offensive rhythm holds.

8. Indianapolis Colts (3-0) — Daniel Jones resurging
   Jones leads in yards per attempt — bettors might find value in Colts overs if passing attack stays aggressive.

9. Los Angeles Rams (2-1) — Stafford’s health is key
   Matthew Stafford’s play keeps the Rams dangerous; monitor neck/back updates before locking in bets.

10. Baltimore Ravens (1-2) — Jackson remains elite, support lacking
    Lamar Jackson’s ceiling is high, but protection and playmakers matter for spreads and totals.

11–20: Solid to Questionable

11. Washington Commanders (2-1) — Depth is proving useful Marcus Mariota has delivered in relief; Jayden Daniels’ health will determine market confidence.

12. Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) — Mahomes waiting on reinforcements
    Patrick Mahomes’ chemistry with new targets is evolving; once injured receivers return, KC lines tighten.

13. Seattle Seahawks (2-1) — Quietly efficient
    Sam Darnold’s metrics paint a competent passing game — consider Seahawks overs or short favorites.

14. Minnesota Vikings (2-1) — Coaching lifts QB play
    Carson Wentz guided a blowout; under current scheme, Minnesota can absorb QB changes, making them safer bets than the box score suggests.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) — Rodgers’ experience smoothing rough patches
    Aaron Rodgers’ timely throws keep Pittsburgh competitive — game scripts will drive betting value.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) — Warning signs for Trevor Lawrence
    Lawrence’s efficiency metrics lag expectations; avoid long-term wagers until improvement appears.

17. Denver Broncos (1-2) — Bo Nix regression concerns
    Nix’s sophomore slump and pressure problems lower confidence in Broncos passing totals.

18. Chicago Bears (1-2) — Caleb Williams breakout potential
    Williams’ big game opens new narrative — market may underprice Chicago’s passing upside in coming weeks.

19. Arizona Cardinals (2-1) — Kyler Murray plateauing
    Murray’s play remains middling; treat lines conservatively and avoid overreacting to occasional big plays.

20. Cleveland Browns (1-2) — Flacco’s inconsistency
    Joe Flacco’s shaky outings make Browns’ passing props and close-game bets risky.

21–32: Troubled Signals and High Risk

21. Carolina Panthers (1-2) — Bryce Young’s form is uneven Young’s metrics dip; avoid big futures on offensive improvement until trends reverse.

22. Dallas Cowboys (1-2) — Dak’s big plays masked by inefficiency
    Dak Prescott still produces highlight throws but yards per attempt is low — mixed signals for bettors.

23. Atlanta Falcons (1-2) — QB optimism not yet backed by results
    Michael Penix has struggled; steer clear of overs betting on passing volume until efficiency improves.

24. Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) — Jake Browning’s shocker lowers ceiling
    Browning’s blowup game raises doubts; Bengals’ offensive lines may be vulnerable in live betting.

25. Las Vegas Raiders (1-2) — Geno Smith stabilizes QB spot
    Smith’s efficient metrics provide some betting stability even if supporting cast is uneven.

26. New England Patriots (1-2) — Maye shows promise
    Maye’s accuracy offers limited optimism; short-term props could yield value while team offense finds consistency.

27. Houston Texans (0-3) — Red flags for C.J. Stroud
    Turnovers and mistakes suggest fading confidence — avoid heavy investment in Texans’ passing futures.

28. New York Jets (0-3) — Quarterback uncertainty persists
    Turnover issues and short passes hinder betting appeal; wait for clearer QB direction.

29. Tennessee Titans (0-3) — Protection problems sink QB metrics
    Cam Ward’s sack rate and low yards per attempt make Titans a tough betting proposition.

30. New York Giants (0-3) — Pivot point approaching
    Russell Wilson’s mixed numbers keep futures in flux; monitor ownership/coach decisions.

31. Miami Dolphins (0-3) — Tua’s turnover trend is costly
    Tagovailoa’s high turnover-worthy rate makes Dolphins straight bets and props risky.

32. New Orleans Saints (0-3) — Spencer Rattler’s struggles continue
    Rattler’s record and turnovers reduce confidence in Saints offensive markets.

Betting Takeaways and What to Watch

Injuries and quarterback availability

Monitor 49ers’ QB situation and any updates on Brock Purdy or Mac Jones before placing 49ers bets. Stafford’s back, Purdy’s toe, and other mid-tier QB injuries will move lines quickly.

Prop and futures angles

Early-season MVP and QB prop markets favor Allen and Herbert; live-game props may be most profitable on teams with clear QB confidence and stable offensive lines.

Risk management

Avoid long-term commitments on teams with volatile QB health or high turnover rates (Dolphins, Texans, Saints). Favor shorter-term, matchup-based wagers while trends settle.

Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams looked like stars in leading their teams to victory, but not every QB situation inspires as much confidence.

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