Why Gavin McKenna's path to 2026 NHL Draft's No. 1 pick is in question

Gavin McKenna’s slow NCAA start has raised doubts about his lock on the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft. Bettors may find value fading on McKenna in top-pick markets and should consider futures or prop bets on challengers like Keaton Verhoeff or Ethan Belchetz if lines shorten after World Juniors and the college season.

Gavin McKenna’s Draft Stock Wobbles After Slow NCAA Start

After a lukewarm opening month at Penn State, Gavin McKenna is no longer a guaranteed No. 1 pick for the 2026 NHL Draft. Early-season play has intensified debate among NHL scouts and front offices: several scouts say they would put another name at the top, while others still back McKenna based on his junior-level body of work.

Scouting split: elite upside vs. translation concerns

McKenna has always been an imperfect but high-upside prospect — elite skill and junior scoring that drew Patrick Kane comparisons, while critics point to effort, perimeter play and a lack of elite speed, drawing parallels to Mitch Marner or Artemi Panarin. His power-play flashes are undeniable, but the physicality of the NCAA has exposed limitations at even strength that scouts expected to be less pronounced.

Why the NCAA Transition Matters

The move from dominant major-junior production to the NCAA is revealing how McKenna’s game translates against better, more physical competition. Some analysts argue that returning to the WHL would have preserved his dominant numbers, but McKenna chose the tougher path. More than half his college season remains, plus the World Junior Championship — both will be decisive for his draft trajectory.

Contenders Emerging for the No. 1 Pick

No single alternative has seized the top spot outright, but several prospects are in the conversation and could gain ground if McKenna doesn’t rebound.

Keaton Verhoeff — the safe defensive profile

North Dakota defenseman Keaton Verhoeff lacks McKenna’s flash but offers a polished, two-way blue-line presence that recalls Aaron Ekblad. His steadiness and size make him attractive to teams seeking a cornerstone defenseman with franchise upside.

Ethan Belchetz — the big, skilled winger

Windsor’s Ethan Belchetz blends size, skating and finishing ability in a way that invites comparisons to Juraj Slafkovský. He profiles as a power winger who can drive play and finish chances, traits that often appeal to teams drafting at the top.

Tynan Lawrence — the high-motor center

Muskegon’s Tynan Lawrence is a dynamic two-way center with speed and a relentless work ethic. When healthy, he looks like a legitimate challenger to the top spot, reminding evaluators of the player profile that has previously led to top selections.

Ivar Stenberg and Alberts Smits — international prospects to watch

Frolunda’s Ivar Stenberg is an electric smaller winger with high skill, while Alberts Smits has drawn attention in Liiga as a sizable Latvian defenseman. Both could rise depending on performance against professional-level competition.

McKenna’s Path to No. 1

Standing at 5-foot-11 without elite speed, McKenna needs sustained, high-end offensive output to quiet critics. If his scoring spikes in the remainder of his NCAA season and he posts a strong World Juniors showing, general managers may still favor his ceiling. If not, teams facing the No. 1 pick will have real choices.

What to watch next

Key indicators for McKenna’s stock: consistent even-strength production, noticeable improvements in effort and defensive engagement, and a standout World Juniors performance. The rest of his college season will be scrutinized closely.

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Betting Implications for Punters

Early-season volatility creates wagering opportunities. Expect futures markets on No. 1 pick and top prospect props to shift as McKenna’s season progresses and international tournaments unfold. Savvy bettors can find value by: - Shopping lines between bookmakers for top-pick markets. - Considering short-term props tied to World Juniors performance. - Looking at challengers like Verhoeff or Belchetz if odds shorten after strong showings.

Outlook

There is still a plausible route for McKenna to go No. 1, but the race is now more open than many assumed in the summer. The coming months — college ice time and World Juniors exposure — will determine whether McKenna regains undisputed frontrunner status or cedes the spotlight to another prospect.

After a less-than-stellar first month in his freshman season at Penn State, McKenna is under the microscope.

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