Will the Cubs use the offseason to address second-half hitting slump?

Chicago maintains its offense was top-five overall despite a second-half dip, with injuries to Kyle Tucker and a fade from Pete Crow-Armstrong to blame. Betting angle: if Tucker departs or remains injury-prone, expect softer team totals and a lean toward unders or lower season-win futures; if he stays healthy, consider modest overs on Cubs team runs and offensive props.

Front Office: Cubs’ Offense “Exceptional” Despite Second-Half Slump

Chicago Cubs president Jed Hoyer defended the club’s offense after the season, calling it “exceptional” and noting the team finished fifth in MLB in runs scored despite a difficult home environment. Hoyer stressed that the team’s overall output was strong even if production clustered at different times, and he described some of the second-half fade as the sort of randomness that affects any lineup.

Why the offense dipped late

Injuries and individual variances drove much of the decline. Right fielder Kyle Tucker’s hand and calf injuries cost him time and production down the stretch, and center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, brilliant early, cooled by season’s end. Hoyer pointed out that hot streaks and slumps are often cyclical — the Cubs had players peaking in the first half who leveled off later.

Kyle Tucker’s Impact and the Free-Agency Question

Hoyer acknowledged Tucker’s huge impact and framed his potential departure as a clear void that would need replacement. If Tucker leaves in free agency, the club must replace his wins above replacement (WAR) through trades, internal development, or a combination of pieces. That calculus will shape offseason strategy and payroll decisions.

Paths to replace production

- Promote young hitters and hope for growth from Pete Crow-Armstrong, Matt Shaw, Owen Caissie and Moisés Ballesteros. - Pursue one or more lower-cost veterans or a trade package to plug the offensive gap. - Shift resources toward pitching while accepting a less potent offense, or balance additions across both areas.

Monthly Run-Scoring Trends: Consistency, With an Outlier

Breaking the season down by month shows the Cubs were elite early (April–May) and more average thereafter, with August standing out as the primary offensive outlier. Compared with 2024, when long midseason lulls (May–June) tanked results, this year’s downturns were shorter and less disastrous. Most MLB teams experience similar month-to-month variance.

How the underlying metrics support the view

Statistically the Cubs weren’t one-dimensional: they chased pitches less, showed aggression in the zone, maintained a low strikeout rate and produced slugging. The power dip coincided with the biggest offensive lull, and situational hitting (RISP) luck didn’t always fall their way. Hoyer suggested some of the distribution issues were driven by bad luck rather than a flawed approach.

What This Means for 2025: Roster Moves and Outlook

Chicago’s plan will be to add offensive talent if Tucker departs, or to find ways to replace his WAR if he returns and remains healthy. The club can go younger, prioritize pitching, or mix both approaches — each choice carries trade-offs for lineup consistency. If the young core continues to develop, the Cubs have a path to remain a top-10 offense; without those gains or a re-signing of a star, questions about consistency will persist.

Key names to watch this offseason

Pete Crow-Armstrong, Matt Shaw, Owen Caissie, and Moisés Ballesteros are the internal upside pieces whose growth could blunt any lost production. The front office’s willingness to spend or trade for offense will determine whether the Cubs lean on youth or pursue established bats.

Both the 2023 and 2024 Cubs were better offensively in the second half than in the first. The opposite was true in this past season.

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