Matthew Stafford's league-leading 46 touchdown passes clash with Drake Maye's superior efficiency and rushing upside in the 2025 MVP race. Betting angle: Stafford is the safer pick for passing-TD and season-MVP props, while Maye offers value on MVP futures and live-game player props thanks to high completion rate and rushing scores.
Matthew Stafford vs Drake Maye: 2025 MVP Race Heats Up
The veteran Matthew Stafford and rising star Drake Maye have closed the gap in the 2025 MVP conversation. Stafford’s touchdown surge has made him the frontrunner, but Maye’s efficiency, passer rating and rushing production have tightened the race and reshaped how sportsbooks and bettors evaluate futures and NFL player props.
Season snapshot: numbers that matter
Stafford leads the NFL in touchdown passes with 46 and has thrown for roughly 4,700 yards this season, pairing big passing volume with careful ball security. He posted about a 65.0% completion rate and a passer rating near 109.2, while contributing almost no rushing production.
Maye finished the regular season with more than 4,300 passing yards, a markedly higher completion percentage (around 72.0%) and a passer rating north of 113.5. He also added meaningful rushing value — roughly 450 yards and four rushing touchdowns — giving him a dual-threat element Stafford lacks.
Both quarterbacks are tied with eight interceptions on the season, underscoring how efficiency and touchdown production are the deciding factors in this matchup.
Performance vs. common opponents
Against shared opponents (CAR, NO, TEN, TB, BAL, ATL) this season the split favored Maye in team results and mobility numbers: - Maye: 6-0, 117/170 (69%), ~1,495 passing yards, 13 TD, 3 INT, ~259 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD. - Stafford: 4-2, 129/182 (71%), ~1,544 passing yards, 14 TD, 6 INT, about -10 rushing yards, 0 rushing TD.
Maye’s unbeaten record against these teams and his added rushing yardage highlight different value propositions for bettors: team success and quarterback rushing lines.
Career perspective: experience vs. breakout trajectory
Stafford’s career totals dwarf Maye’s due to longevity — several hundred NFL starts, well over 60,000 passing yards and 400+ career passing touchdowns. Maye, through his first 29 starts, has shown elite efficiency (completion rate near 70% and a passer rating above 100) and rapid development, making him one of the most promising young signal-callers in recent memory.
Historical context: where Maye would fit among young MVPs
If Maye wins MVP, he would join a short list of very young winners: Jim Brown (21 and 22), Lamar Jackson (22), Patrick Mahomes (23), Dan Marino (23) and Walter Payton (23). Maye turned 23 just before the 2025 season, making him one of the youngest legitimate MVP contenders in the modern era.
Implications for bettors and sportsbooks
Stafford’s touchdown volume makes him a favorite for season-long passing-TD leader props and a safer MVP futures pick for risk-averse bettors.
Maye’s higher efficiency, team success and rushing ability create value on MVP futures for bettors seeking upside, plus attractive player-prop opportunities (completion percentage, rushing yards/TDs, and game-winning drive markets).
Live betting edges also favor Maye in games where his rushing can swing in-game lines.
Bottom line
This MVP duel is a classic contrast: Stafford’s elite touchdown production and veteran resume versus Maye’s efficiency, mobility and team momentum.
For bettors, the choice comes down to preferring high-volume, touchdown-heavy production (Stafford) or high-efficiency, multi-dimensional upside and younger upside value (Maye).
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