Bo Nix’s season-ending ankle injury hands Denver to backup Jarrett Stidham, boosting New England’s odds in the AFC title game. Expect bookmakers to favor the Patriots (opened Patriots -5.5 in Denver); punters may back the Patriots moneyline and consider lower passing prop lines for Denver with Stidham starting.
Bo Nix Out for Season; Broncos Turn to Jarrett Stidham
Bo Nix, the Broncos’ breakout 25-year-old quarterback, will miss the remainder of the season after suffering a broken ankle late in the win over the Bills. Nix led Denver to a 14-3 regular-season record, paced the league in pass attempts, completed 63.4% of his throws and threw 25 touchdowns. His injury is a major blow to the AFC’s top seed.
The Broncos now turn to 29-year-old Jarrett Stidham, who has not attempted a regular-season pass since the 2023 finale and logged no stats this season. Stidham’s NFL career includes four starts across seven seasons, with a 1-3 record, 1,422 passing yards, eight touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Familiar Foe: Stidham’s New Opportunity
Stidham returns to a familiar environment — he was a 2019 fourth-round pick who spent time in New England and later started two games for the Raiders under then-offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. He’s backed by veteran coach Sean Payton, who will attempt to get the most out of the roster in an abrupt championship-game audition at Mile High.
While there are historical examples of backups leading deep playoff runs, none slipped into the spotlight this late in the postseason. The pressure on Stidham will be immense against a motivated Patriots defense.
Patriots’ Road Form and Quarterback Spotlight
The Patriots open as 5.5-point favorites in Denver, handing Drake Maye a major first: his first road playoff start. New England finished the season a perfect 8-0 on the road, demonstrating resilience away from home — a key storyline for bettors and viewers alike.
Patriots Defense: A Playoff Surge
New England’s defense has been dominant in recent playoff action, forcing nine turnovers, scoring a defensive touchdown and generating 66 QB pressures over the last two games. That disruptive identity will be decisive against Stidham, who lacks recent game reps.
Betting Outlook and Keys for Punters
- Game line: Patriots opened as roughly -5.5 in Denver after Nix’s injury.
- Likely market moves: Expect a shift toward New England on the spread and moneyline; player passing props for Denver should drop.
- Smart plays: Consider Patriots moneyline or spread bets if lines tighten; props tied to Stidham’s passing attempts, completions or Denver team passing yards may offer value. Monitor injury reports, weather and snap counts for clearer lines before locking wagers.
Historical Context and the Stakes
Backup quarterbacks have reached the Super Bowl, but typically after taking over earlier in a season. Stidham’s sudden promotion into a conference championship game is rare and creates an intriguing narrative: a veteran backup seeking his defining moment against a top-seeded defense. For Denver, protection and game-plan simplicity will be priorities; for New England, pressure and turnover creation could seal the outcome.
Why Caleb Williams Has Everyone Paying Attention To Chicago
The Patriots know Stidham well, having drafted him in 2019.
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