Iga Świątek’s serve inconsistency and Zheng Qinwen’s return create volatility for WTA markets — expect more break-heavy matches and value in betting on opponents to win return games or on higher break totals. On the ATP side, Ben Shelton’s clutch form suggests backing him in close matches or live markets where his resilience can swing odds late.
Serve Issues Stall Świątek’s Momentum
Iga Świątek’s recent losses at the Australian Open and Qatar Open underlined a growing problem: an unreliable serve that forces her into longer, more error-prone baseline rallies. Against Maria Sakkari she was broken five times across two sets, and key holds evaporated into neutral or defensive positions in the tennis. Świątek has already started making adjustments in the off-season, and she has prioritized serving work over some tournament entries to rebuild consistency rather than overhaul her entire motion.
Why the Serve Matters
When a top player’s serve stops generating free points, matches turn into attritional battles. That raises the probability of late swings and gives returners an edge — a dynamic opponents can exploit and bettors should factor into markets for break totals and set betting.
ATP Tour: Seeds Deliver in Multiple Finals
Across Dallas, Rotterdam and Buenos Aires, the highest seeds prevailed — a sign that, when top-ranked stars are absent, the next tier can still produce predictable outcomes. In Dallas, No.1 Taylor Fritz and No.2 Ben Shelton produced a gripping final. Shelton recovered from a set down, saved three championship points at 5-4 in the decider, then broke immediately and closed out a 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 victory.
Shelton’s Breakthrough and Consistency Questions
Shelton’s Dallas triumph completes a trio of significant titles above the 250 level, making him the first American to reach that mark since Andy Roddick. His run often hinges on peak returns at pivotal moments; while clutch, his general break frequency sits mid-pack, creating both upside and risk for match predictions.
Rotterdam and Buenos Aires Results
Alex de Minaur beat Félix Auger-Aliassime 6-3, 6-2 to lift the Rotterdam title, while Francisco Cerúndolo claimed the Argentina Open with a 6-4, 6-2 victory over Luciano Darderi.
Zheng Qinwen’s Return Could Shake WTA Dynamics
Zheng Qinwen returned from an elbow injury with promising signs in Doha, advancing two rounds and pushing Elena Rybakina in a tight match. Her serve showed improved rhythm — including a 20-ace performance versus Sofia Kenin — suggesting Zheng can be a match-winner again. Her presence raises volatility in WTA draws and increases the talent depth at the top, making early-round upsets and market swings more likely.
Mirra Andreeva: Talent vs. Temperament
At 18, Mirra Andreeva remains one of the tour’s most gifted players, but recent on-court emotional lapses point to a psychological hurdle. After two WTA 1000 wins and deep major runs, a series of frustrating defeats and visible distress under pressure have coincided with inconsistent results. With 2,000 ranking points and titles to defend in coming weeks, Andreeva faces a crucial stretch for both ranking and mental development.
Calendar Changes Loom for the ATP
The ATP is planning “calendar optimization” toward 2028, with a potential Masters 1000 event in Saudi Arabia set to reshape the February schedule.
Proposed concurrent swings in South America and West Asia raise questions about player attraction for 250- and 500-level events in the Southern Hemisphere.
These shifts would affect seasonal player loads, tournament fields and long-term betting markets as tournament strength redistributes.
Week’s Standouts, Rankings Movers and Talking Points
Winners: Ben Shelton (Dallas), Alex de Minaur (Rotterdam), Francisco Cerúndolo (Argentina).
On the WTA side, a notable title came from a breakthrough WTA 1000 winner in Doha.
Rankings movement included several significant rises into career highs and some notable drops, reflecting early-season form swings and the impact of restored or injured players returning to competition.
Upcoming Tournaments to Watch
Qatar Open continues on the ATP and WTA sides with top players in action. Other events this month include the Rio de Janeiro swing and ATP 250 stops in North America. These tournaments will clarify momentum for players nursing form or fitness questions and offer early betting opportunities as lines adjust to recent performances.
Shot of the week: Taylor Fritz produced an improvised winner against Marcos Giron, a reminder of the improvisation that can decide close matches.
Welcome back to the Monday Tennis Briefing, where The Athletic will explain the stories behind the stories from the past week on court.
This week, why even the best all-court and baseline players can’t run from the serve, a line-holding session on the ATP Tour, the return of a bona fide star and some tennis politics.
If you’d like to follow our fantastic tennis coverage, click here. What can Iga Świątek learn from Carlos Alcaraz?
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