Packers vs. Lions Thanksgiving preview: defenses should keep this low-scoring — consider backing the total UNDER 48.5. Jahmyr Gibbs projects as Detroit’s lead runner and is a strong OVER 70.5 rushing yards candidate, while Romeo Doubs’ reduced snaps make UNDER 3.5 receptions a sensible fade for bettors.
Packers vs. Lions Thanksgiving Showdown: Why This Could Be a Defensive Grind
The Thanksgiving slate opens with a pivotal NFC North clash between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. Both units boast top-10 defensive metrics, creating conditions for a lower-scoring game than market expectations. Green Bay allows just 4.6 yards per play (second-fewest) and ranks fifth in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game. Detroit’s defense sits among the league’s best in DVOA as well. Those numbers underpin an argument for the game total staying under the current 48.5 mark.
Why the Under 48.5 Is a Strong Consideration
This line feels elevated given the matchup: two stout defenses facing offenses that aren’t consistently elite. High totals typically signal two explosive attacks, but here both defenses can limit chunk plays and force longer drives. Expect a physical game with fewer possessions and lower scoring efficiency, making UNDER 48.5 an attractive team-market play.
Jahmyr Gibbs Outlook: Primary Back with Upside
Jahmyr Gibbs has recently seen a clear uptick in workload, logging roughly 73% of snaps in back-to-back games — the first time all season he’s exceeded 70% repeatedly. He’s averaging 6.1 yards per carry and about 86.5 rushing yards per game, and he’ll face a Packers rush defense ranked middle-of-the-pack in opponent rush EPA and success rate. Those trends support backing Gibbs OVER 70.5 rushing yards.
Romeo Doubs Fade: Snap Decline and Production Drop
Romeo Doubs’ usage has declined after a stretch of heavy snap shares. Following five straight games over 89% snaps, he’s had three straight games at 76% or fewer, totaling seven receptions in that span. With reduced playing time and fewer separation opportunities, Doubs looks vulnerable to an UNDER 3.5 receptions play.
Top Bets and Rationale
- Total UNDER 48.5 — defensive strengths and limited explosive potential suggest fewer points. (Pick: UNDER 48.5) - Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 70.5 rushing yards — increased snap share and strong yards-per-carry make this realistic. (Pick: Gibbs OVER 70.5) - Romeo Doubs UNDER 3.5 receptions — falling snap rate and diminished targets support fading him. (Pick: Doubs UNDER 3.5)
2026 NFL Draft Rankings: Cornerbacks
Closing Notes for Bettors
Monitor late-week injury reports and weather, as both can shift totals and player props. Defensive matchups and snap-share trends are central here — the market may be overvaluing passing upside for Detroit, so look to exploit the under and Gibbs’ rushing volume if lines hold.
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Breaking down the best bets to place for the first NFL game on Thanksgiving Day between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions.
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